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December forecast
forecast
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2009-12-04 11:17:10

Whilst the headlines are saying oil prices have dropped, the reality is different as most of the oil used for refining in Europe is Brent oil and prices for Brent have actually increased slightly over the past few weeks from $75 to $79. Hence we have seen slight rises at the pumps.

Prices are still relatively stable and economic news as well as a "heatwave" in the north east USA (21 degrees in Boston!) where they should have snow storms at this time of year is tempering demand.

Expect minor changes in pricing except for whatever the budget brings.

 



jon
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2009-12-04 14:19:47

I'm filling up before the budget, that's for sure!


mcaul
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2009-12-07 23:44:48

a note on the budget - the carbon tax will not be implemented immediately as it is a new tax and must be brought into law. So hopefully there will be no increase wednesday.

the good news is falls in US crude are starting to have affect on brent prices, so we may see a little reduction pre-christmas.

home heat @ 529 / 1000 litres seems to be generraly available

 


fiestago
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2009-12-08 23:56:24

I wonder will retailers pretend to absord the carbon tax. Prices have not fallen in about 5/6 weeks now and have remained higher than they should have considering oil price trends downwards recently.. When the tax is introduced will garages leave the prices as they are now(above what they should be) and say they are taking the increase hit to help consumers? Just a thought.


rascal
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2009-12-09 15:08:59

Obviously fiestago you have not read December forcast that Brent prices have increased not decreased that is why the prices of fuel in forecourts have not decreased would'nt be a great world if all business took the brunt of the government increases it is a pity that when our Government were thinking of decreasing Excise Duty in Drink they did'nt come down to plannet earth and think of us ordinary people and forget the carbon taxes altogether especially for the few of us that are currently employed and carrying the burden.


jon
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2009-12-09 16:57:33

Budget has added €15 per tonne carbon tax on petrol and diesel, this sounds like a 1.1c increase roughly.


jon
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2009-12-09 18:03:12

Reading elsewhere that it is around 4c


fiestago
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2009-12-09 18:04:30

The Government has long departed planet Earth, Rascal. And just listening to news it seems the increase is 4c on petrol and 5c on diesel.. Ive had mortgage, marriage and babies in last 2 years. would be nice to see that reflected. But we'll get on with it. Lucky enough to have a job.


hulkie
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2009-12-09 18:22:16

I'm trying to figure this out. Topaz come with a text message saying a rise of 4.2c on unleaded and 4.9c on diesel. I thought there was 1100 approx litres of fuel in a tonne. now if I get this right it seems like €46.20 per tonne approx. work it out for yourself and remember that this includes VAT.


bigc
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2009-12-10 08:36:38

Struggling to understand this myself. There are 1177 litres of diesel in a tonne. For €15 per tonne works out at a rise of 1.275cpl! I think they have been deliberately obtuse in using €15/tonne jargon. IMO it's a massive con!


mcaul
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2009-12-10 08:38:45

The good news is the price of oil has fallen nicely over the past few days and by Christas the 4c & 5c increases will have been almost wiped out. So temporary rise for a week or so and then back to about €1.10 for diesel & €1.20 for petrol.

I'll have a more comprehensive new forecast on Saturday.


tarabuses
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2009-12-10 08:54:15

I thought it was the emissions being taxed not the quantity of fuel.  How much carbon is emitted by a litre of petrol?  I see that heating oil will increase by over 8c a litre next May so it is not as simple as weighing the quantity.

Either way, why dress this up as a carbon tax?  It is just additional tax on transport.

 


tiernano
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2009-12-10 11:54:26

the maths for working out the price of carbon is as follows:

burning a Liter of Petrol produces  2.39KG of CO2 Per Liter burned.  deisel = 2.62KG / L

thats means for Petrol, you would need to burn 418.4 L to produce a Tonn of CO2 (381.6 for Deisel).

so, EUR15 / 418 = 3.5c (Deisel = EUR15 / 381 = 3.93).

Now, thats based on Metric toness and the the government are obvously screwing us a little more...  


jon
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2009-12-10 12:13:03

Damn, this is going to make the "Prices explained" page much more complicated! I may just add it all to the "Fixed Duty" bit.


tarabuses
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2009-12-10 13:16:47

Wouldn't the difference be the VAT?    3.5c + 21.5% = 4.25c

That does raise the question as to why there should be VAT on a carbon tax - unless it is just duty with a different name!

 


rascal
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2009-12-10 18:50:27

Well fiestago I have driven around the Ballincollis area on way home from work and see JIMBOBS TOP SERVICE STATION (INDIVIDUAL OWNED) and TEXACO (COMPANY OWNED) BOTH HAVE NOT INCREASED THEIR PRICES FOR FUEL FAIR PLAY TO  BOTH.2 TOPAZ STATIONS MAXOL AND APPLEGREEN PRICES HAVE INCREASED


jon
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2009-12-10 19:57:09

I only noticed stations upping their prices this afternoon, not last night.


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