Pumps.ie
    Login with Facebook Login With Pumps.ie
Good news at last...
forecast
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 0
2011-08-08 08:42:39

Oil price falling and the US dollar weakening slightly. The combined affect should see prices starting to come down next weekend with the main drop the following weekend.

Assuming brent crude stays below $105 and the dollar stays about $1.43/€1, we can look forward to about 8c drop in pump prices down to 1.42 for unleaded and 1.34 for diesel.

If some comentators are to be believed, brent prices could fall to the low $80 level. - Just in time for the heating oil season! 



vickers209
User Icon
Price updates: 667
Station Photos: 4
Forum Posts: 56
2011-08-09 08:46:46

Brent Crude Oil is @ $99 this morning


sobanek
User Icon
Price updates: 3
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 55
2011-08-09 09:53:12

Brent @ $99.06 today and hopefully goes down to $85 levels in the next two weeks.
If the price of Brent stays at this level and the dollar can weaken now, the pumps can go to 1.39 for unleaded and 1.31 for diesel at most.


sobanek
User Icon
Price updates: 3
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 55
2011-08-09 10:55:17

And it's up now to 100.83.


mcaul
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 319
2011-08-09 11:38:00

don't worry about $1 here are there, its the end of day trend we want to continue downwards and this is happening very nicely.


Engineelf
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 1
2011-08-09 13:07:54

What are the chances of the retailers passing on any reductions to the consumer / forecourt?


sobanek
User Icon
Price updates: 3
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 55
2011-08-09 13:08:03

What about 104.15?


shane26
User Icon
Price updates: 6
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 73
2011-08-09 20:35:43

so the dollar is weaker and the price of oil is coming down, pity theres rumours that the refinerys are in talks about raising there price again to increase there profits again.

its just annoying.

remember a couple of years ago oil was at $150 a barrel and we paid 1.30 or so at the pumps.

oil had been stable for some time at around $110 120 p/b for a nice while now and we have been paying been 145 and 1.55 p/l and there has only been 1 carbon tax i think and 2 small refinery increases.

maybe iam wrong, its all a bit confusing.

got to hate them rich peeps making money on the markets and us guys have to pay the price.


mcaul
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 319
2011-08-09 21:48:38

Maybe this needs a more indepth explanation as there will be amny new lookers here whilst oil prie drop are in the news.

Oil is currently just over $100 a barrel - We mostly use a blend of north sea and middle eastern oil. This is the raw material and its refined into petrol & diesel. Refinery prices usually reflect the ups and downs of the world oil price and it is the refinerly price that reflects the fuel staion price.

On average it takes 12-14 days for refunery prices to reach the pumps, however sometimes large currecny swings also play their parts (up and down) in prices and as fuel is pid for in US dollars and paid for upon discharge at port, currecny chages take 3-5 days to feed into the pumps.

Currently the dollar is sort of stable, if weakening a bit. This, allied to the drop in oil prices is very positive for the motorist, but prices really only started to drop last Wednesday and only really gathered steam on Friday & yesterday.

Therefore it will be 12-14 days from last wednesday that we will see price drops and they will probably be phased in over 5-7 days.

Assuming there's no sudden rise again (doubtful), about 10c will come off pump prices for  unleaded, diesel & home heat.

And finally...

 

Here's the current approx breakdown of your €1.50 petrol

Raw oil 50c, Refinery 5c, taxes & duties almost 60c, fuel distrubutor & fuel retailer 10c between them, vat 25c.

If oil was $1 a barrel, you would still be paying 90c a litre at the pump.

 

 


mcaul
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 319
2011-08-09 21:50:51

apologies for the mis-typings above - can't get used to a new keyboard on the pc :) - but youse get the jist of what is said.


notpaddytheplasterer
User Icon
Price updates: 7
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 2
2011-08-09 22:25:57

Seems like prices rise at the beginning of the Summer and fall in Autumn to take account of people travelling in the 'good' weather or on holiday internationally in my experience.


sobanek
User Icon
Price updates: 3
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 55
2011-08-10 00:02:38

So basically over a half of the fuel price is taxes. Europe's ridiculous...
America, come to me...


mcaul
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 319
2011-08-11 10:13:22

@sobanek - fuel taxes are low in USA - but if you have an accident, you better have your $12,000 a year health insurance paid up to date :)  


sobanek
User Icon
Price updates: 3
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 55
2011-08-12 09:28:02

Once again, GREED.

Oil went up to $108.


igor
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 6
2011-08-13 23:46:29

I firmly believe that if the Irish motorist wre to boycot say Topaz outlets the price would come down pretty rapidly. A garage in Wicklow can charge 152.9 today while a garage in Dublin can charge 10c less and still make a profit. One garage in Dublin 8 has 12 pumps going full blast all day every day why? because he's cheaper than anywhere else. Plus what he sells in his shop where I know he can make 45c profit on a chocolate bar. Now who's the clever business man and I'll certainly support him. He's chinese by the way, no wonder they'll rule the world eventually.  


mcaul
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 319
2011-08-14 18:04:59

the garage in dublin has a huge passing trade and can operate on next to nothing margins becasue the pumps are going full blast 24/7. The garage in wicklow has a miiscule passing trade in comparison and still must pay staff for a full day, still pay rates, still pay rent. - Even if the garage in wicklow was cheapest in the country, it would be hard pressed to do 25% of the trade the Mount Brown garage does. -


igor
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 6
2011-08-15 13:50:12

Mount Brown is NOT a major thoroughfare and it has the business because the word got out and people,including me, will pass other outlets to get there. A local garage to me in Clondalkin village dropped it's prices recently and they had to have lads on the street directing the traffic in and out. As soon as the prices went back up - the place is just ticking over. This is all very basic. 


mcaul
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 319
2011-08-16 10:49:29

Population Dublin 1.2 million, population wicklow town circa 15,000.

Mount Brown is a couple of minutes away for tens of thousands of motorists. Wicklow town isn't. 

Prime example, Maganey / 3 Counties about 5 miles outside athy on Carlow road was near cheapest in country for diesel for about 2 months, yet they still would rarely have more than one car on the forecourt at a time. They lost money on the excercise and have since moved back to th area's average price or a little below it as they couldn;t sustain the losses.

Maybe if the wicklow staion matched mount brown, you'd be happy for a while. Then it would close like thousands of other and then you'd have less competition and pay even more.

 

 


igor
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 6
2011-08-16 22:34:37

So that's your logic... Drop their prices and they go out of business What school of economics did you graduate from? So they are all maintaining a high price even though the dollar is weak and the barrel of oil has dropped and if they reduce their prices they go out of business!

I've never heard such nonsense. Would you be a garage owner by any chance? Or are you just out for an argument? Good luck !

 


micky pump
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 1
2011-08-16 23:33:30

connaugg
User Icon
Price updates: 16
Station Photos: 1
Forum Posts: 55
2011-08-17 13:48:15

Igor, calm down, we are all friends here. McCaul's analysis is generally fairly accurate. Indeed we are seeing large price drops exactly as he predicted. There is strong evidence that there is very little profit margin on fuel when priced near the average prices seen on pumps.ie. Most stations make their profit from coffee, soft drinks, snacks etc  I do believe that many stations selling fuel only with low traffic are struggling and have to jack up their prices to survive.


mcaul
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 319
2011-08-17 14:51:10

Igor - I'm here 3 years. Initially because I thoight garage owners were taking the piss, then as I had a bit of time on my hand I investigated the make up of prices from oil well to pump, how long it takes and what variances are involved.

My conclusion was forecourts make about 5c - 6c a litre as do importers. Everything else is tax and product costs. Oil rice changes take 12-14 days to hit pumps, currency changes take 4-5 days to hit the pumps.

In a case like Mount Brown, the distributor is contributing to the lower price to get volume, possibly even the distributor operates the garage.  

...and also most Topaz stations are independently owned garages operating under a franchise banner - possibly the guy behind the counter is the owner of that station.

 

..and finally, yes I'm sort of in the oil business - click the Yankee Candle link on the front page and that's me! :) - Candles are made from oil!


jon
User Icon
Price updates: 476
Station Photos: 95
Forum Posts: 473
2011-08-17 18:59:18

Hey Igor, can you please be a little more civil to people on this forum? Thanks.


milly
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 1
2011-08-18 12:52:39

My local garage was €145.8 last night - I think they're owned by Applegreen but not actually Applegreen branded.


igor
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 6
2011-08-19 15:28:18

Apologies if I offended anyone - it was not intentional. I still believe we are being ripped off on a commodity that is a necessity not a luxury and I think having to wait three weeks minimum for prices at the pumps to fall when they can increase over night is unacceptable.


vickers209
User Icon
Price updates: 667
Station Photos: 4
Forum Posts: 56
2011-08-19 18:39:59

AA predicts fall in fuel prices

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/aa-predicts-fall-in-fuel-prices-517198.html


irishrockall
User Icon
Price updates: 3
Station Photos: 5
Forum Posts: 58
2011-08-19 19:55:54

@mcaul...any chance of a few candles ??  If the utilities keep putting up the electricity prices  then we will all be back to candles. And if the price of fuel goes up any more then well all be back to shanks mare.


irishrockall
User Icon
Price updates: 3
Station Photos: 5
Forum Posts: 58
2011-08-19 20:04:42

@igor...never mind. Everyone has a go at mcaul (myself included) . I think he knows it's nothing personal. He tries to tell it as it is and sometimes we don't want to hear it.


igor
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 6
2011-08-21 12:10:00

What's this nonsense from the AA? They should, on behalf of the Irish motorist, be demanding that fuel prices fall - not predicting! What is the AA's job afterall if it's not fighting on behalf of the motorist? Oilprices worldwide have fallen 9% in August alone and the US$ is hovering @ 1.44 for the past month also. You watch - Muammar Gaddafi will only have to sneeze and the prices at the pumps will rise immediately - Why do we put up with it??


mcaul
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 319
2011-08-21 15:22:29

seems about 3c has come off prices in some places yesterday & today, with most staions needing 2/3 deliveries a week, I'd expect this reduction to follow through on most garages by Tuesday. 

Who nees the AA - the reductions were forecast here on 8th August! Pity oil went back to $109, so reduction won't be much more than the 3c/4c level. 

BTW Igor - AA is a private organisation and works on behalf of its members - not all motorists, and as stated above, the raw material only accounts for 50c, so 9% of 50c = just 4.5c Reduction in average retail price since last week and assuming 3c this week = 5c.


vickers209
User Icon
Price updates: 667
Station Photos: 4
Forum Posts: 56
2011-08-24 16:11:12

Lybia And oil Prices

 

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0824/oil-business.html


sobanek
User Icon
Price updates: 3
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 55
2011-08-24 19:56:55

It's ridiculous. Stupid speculation. NOTHING happened in Libya that would prevent oil production and yet it's still costs much more than it used to!


jamierooney
User Icon
Price updates: 31
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 1
2011-08-24 22:57:15

well to be fair - its our own government (and their multiple predecessors) that are killing us with the pump price. They have to reduce these levies to allow the common people to survive.

They are just shooting themselves in the foot otherwise.


igor
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 6
2011-08-25 10:56:41

Average price today still 149.9...where's the reduction?


tarabuses
User Icon
Price updates: 6144
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 106
2011-08-25 18:00:17

When I look at my watchlist the petrol price varies from 146.8 to 152.7.  That's an average of 149.75 so not far off.  Makes you wonder why anyone would pay 152.7 though.


sobanek
User Icon
Price updates: 3
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 55
2011-08-27 00:59:52

Oil's at $0.00 today :) That means a reduction, right?

 

</sarcasm>


sobanek
User Icon
Price updates: 3
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 55
2011-08-27 02:51:23

Doh. $111.36...


mcaul
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 319
2011-08-28 09:38:55

Unfortunately Brent Oil's price drop was all too short to make any real difference to forecourt prices. Some dropped by a cent pr 2 just to be back up a couple of days later.

On 8th aug, brent oil dropped to $103 - a $10 drop in 3 days. But 4 days later it was back at $108 and by 15th to was back at $110.  A drop to $106 was very short lived and we're back at $111.

God knows where the market's going or why prices are stubbornly high. Even the currency markets have many analysts looking like fools (most were predicting sub $1.40 for euro - but it moves to $1.45!) 

At region $110, prices will stay at or about €1.50 for nleaded and €1.42 for diesel. A sustained $10 move in any direction adds / drops 6c to the forecourt price based on exchange rate of $1.43 - $1.45.

To check brent oil prices, here's the FT link  http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/performance.asp?s=1054972


sobanek
User Icon
Price updates: 3
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 55
2011-08-29 01:07:42

I just use http://www.oil-price.net/ - easy to remember and it's right there.


notpaddytheplasterer
User Icon
Price updates: 7
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 2
2011-09-01 20:44:36

News coming in tonight of Roscommon petrol station raided by CAB, Customs and local Gardai. 4700l seized, one in custody. 


Driver1
User Icon
Price updates: 74
Station Photos: 4
Forum Posts: 3
2011-09-03 08:08:12

I think people need to use some common sense, if fuel is very cheap in one station and not in all the major branded sites theres a reason for it.. If it sounds to good to be true it usually is. It will only cost people more in the long run in repair cost to there engine by using laundered fuel.


ramy2k
User Icon
Price updates: 1
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 30
2011-09-05 16:50:13

There needs to be proper regulation of these filling stations. People have every right to go to the cheap stations when prices are so high. I am now sending my 3 year old car in for possibly a new fuel pump @ €500+ tomorrow after filling up in these gangsters places, one in Ringsend and one near the airport on the Santry Road. I will be following this up with the guards if I can prove it was their washed diesel that caused it. 



User Icon
Price updates: 2416
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 16
2011-09-06 23:43:53

mr.california
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 1
2011-09-06 23:48:39

ConcernedMotorist
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 1
2011-09-09 11:22:33

I Whole heartedly agree eith Ramy2k that there needs to be much better regulation of these illegal fuel sales at the side of the road. The one on the Malahide road yesterday was raided by customs and closed down only to reopen later that on day. As a side note if people weren't buying fuel from they the wouldn't be there.....



User Icon
Price updates: 2416
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 16
2011-09-09 18:07:23

@ConcernedMotorist..... I agree with you. However, there isn't a person in the country who is not guilty of supporting the "black economy" ,  in some shape or form.

Dodgy Diesel , Dodgy DVD's , Dodgy Second Hand Tools  etc etc.

In truth , how many people would be concerned about the diesel ( and where it came from ) ,  if it didn't pose a possible threat to the engine ?? Not many I would say.  Just as most people don't care about all those pirated DVD's that damage the film industry or the loss of VAT to the exchequer  by paying the plumber in cash. We all tend to be a bit selective in the way we view the black economy.

For the record , I do not condone the sale of illegal fuel.


shane26
User Icon
Price updates: 6
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 73
2011-09-11 22:54:11

what effect will the dollar been at $1.36 at the moment mean for us guys at the pumps


Please log in if you would like to post a comment about this article. Or click here to register for your free pumps.ie account
Member Login
Username :
Password :
Remember me!
Like us!

Average Prices
Petrol: 139.9c
Diesel: 124.9c

Top Updaters
This week's top price updaters are:
  1. nuge3 (1248)
  2. noslenp (255)
  3. cr (144)
  4. Mike59 (107)
  5. Hazzard (65)
  6. TwinCamMan (55)
  7. emac (54)
  8. patoc37 (46)
  9. Wheres Mal (35)
  10. fitzpatb (31)

Google Ads