Pumps.ie
    Login with Facebook Login With Pumps.ie
Price Commentary April 20th
forecast
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 0
2012-04-20 11:45:04

Oil prices continue to be at high levels that do not reflect reality in the markets.

The main cause of this is a combination of speculators and continued political issues particularly in Iran. The medium term picture sees very little respite in prices unless the Iranian situation becomes less volitile.

In addition, we see continued strength in the US dollar with some commentators suggesting further strength to about $1.26 / €1.

Furthermore, demand for petrol always increases in summer and demad for diesl falls - thus refinery premiums for the 2 products have changed and the cost of refining petrol from the refineries has increased and diesle decreased. This happens every Spring and Autumn and is why we've seen diesel go from almost on par with petrol to now being 8c-10c lower.   

In the short term, we will see about 2c - 3 c come off the recent highs at the pumps based on the drop back from $125 to $118 over the past couple fo weeks, but that's about as positive a news I can give at this time.

But don't forget, planning the journeys, taking it easy on the motorways and open roads (under 100km/hr), less use of braking and watching the road ahead and allowing the car ease to a halt will give you up to 30% extra mileage. - It may be boring driving, but its saves money.    



vickers209
User Icon
Price updates: 654
Station Photos: 4
Forum Posts: 56
2012-04-24 08:16:46

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/ff-proposes-emergency-legislation-to-tackle-fuel-prices-548736.html


mcaul
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 319
2012-04-24 10:21:54

It would help a little, but I think an easier option would have been a postponement of the carbon tax for a period of 12 months


rathcormac
User Icon
Price updates: 7
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 3
2012-04-25 08:52:34

hulkie
User Icon
Price updates: 6
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 25
2012-04-25 13:41:51

They'll not vote for the reduction because they don't have to pay for their fuel! Being bombarded with emails and calls telling them we'll sack their sorry asses come the next election may swing them a bit lol.


prof_frink
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 1
Forum Posts: 46
2012-04-26 08:40:15

The government budget every year for a certain level of income from fuel, if this could be kept as a static excise tax and have no VAT element it would help the tax payer and not effect the government tax take. For every 8.13c increase in fuel the government get an extra 2.3c just from vat.

So the next time you hear them say they can't because of tax/troika/budget reply to them with that.

Also for them to follow my suggestion makes smart economic sense because if oil was to nose dive to $50 a barrell (please god), their planned tax take would be destroyed... oh wait I forgot the Dept of Finance don't listen to risk analysis.


prof_frink
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 1
Forum Posts: 46
2012-04-26 08:41:27

correction: 8.13c raise at cost gives 2.3c vat and we pay 10c


richiek
User Icon
Price updates: 3831
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 18
2012-05-02 00:08:24

i think we had better get used to these high prices.Between speculators,political tensions and especially greedy government policies of exorbitant tax,its very hard to come back from these high prices for the foreseeable future.........unfortunately :\


shane26
User Icon
Price updates: 6
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 73
2012-05-04 09:59:11

well iam still trying to figure out why prices are so high, in feburary our dollar exchange rate is as it is now as shown on link:http://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/data/rms_mth.aspx?SelectDate=2012-02-29&reportType=REP

and oil prices are the same as the 6/2/12 as shown in link:http://www.livecharts.co.uk/futures_commodities/brent_oil_prices_historical.php?type_symbol=futures_cb&start=60

also i know it takes a bit of time for it to filter though to us idiots paying these crazy prices.

but if it is to take 7-14 days to filter though we should be looking at prices in the €155.9 to 156.9 and thats at my local station according to pumps.ie records and these guys are expensive anyway.

so does anybody know what the excuse is now?


shane26
User Icon
Price updates: 6
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 73
2012-05-04 10:00:46

oh and the dollar exchange rate on the above link is the same as what it is now:)


mcaul
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 319
2012-05-04 18:17:02

Refineries put a premium on petrol in spring/summer, but the diesel refinery price drops. Hence you see cheaper diesel in comparison to enleaded in spring summer. (currently about 10c diff at pumps whereas 3 months ago price was almost identical.

GOOD NEWS - US Oil prices have broken below the $100 mark and this could / should see continued weakness in oil prices. Thankfully the only way pum prices are going is DOWN, possibly by about 4c / 5c in the next 10 days or so.  

The reason I see a downward trend coming is that other fuel has fallen to the ground. Gas is extremly low and coal is extremely low.

 

 


shane26
User Icon
Price updates: 6
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 73
2012-05-04 20:51:45

i thought we dealt in brent oil? which is now at 113.27 p/b.

as for the 4/5c drop this is crazy that refineries  can add 10c to a liter of petrol, i dont think they can do this, surely there has to be some law against this on the just like price fixing.

we should have been looking at a 15c decrease since last week through to next week.

arrgghhh.

so sick of this super rich plc's and dodgie gov. screwing us hard working people over.


shane26
User Icon
Price updates: 6
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 73
2012-05-07 11:20:55

ok so now we are at €112 per barrel surely we have to see some significant drop very soon


mcaul
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 319
2012-05-08 09:34:16

Shane26 - less of the hype please. This is a community forum, not Yahoo or boards.

A few dollars change will NOT see 15c price decrease. Prices have dropped about 3-4c in many place and a further 3c-4c price drop will come through soon.

The good news is the support line for oil is broken and its now on a downward slope - how far it falls is anybody's guess.  Most trades are in the US for US oil and the sentiment comes from there too - Brent pricing follows US pricing trendline, so once the US price breaks, so does the Brent price.

Even further good news for next winter, the margin requirement for speculators have been changed so that they can't borrow to speculate - this should mean less money for speculation and therefore prices becoming more suited to demand and production.  


shane26
User Icon
Price updates: 6
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 73
2012-05-08 19:14:29

what hype, you must own a petrol station mcaul, iam just add info that is out there and people aren't getting to see because its swallowed up by the stupid media about stories that dont matter.

also i wasn't talking about a few dollars in the change i was talking about the drop from almost €130 to now $111 per barrel thats where iam getting my figures from, so yes i feel we should see a 10-15c drop from 1 week ago prices.

but as always if something happens in the next few days we will never see the reduction and the petrol station owners will just gobble up the profit like always.

 


jonnybangbang
User Icon
Price updates: 19
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 47
2012-05-09 09:43:21

Hey Shane26. how are you calculating a drop of $19 in crude  is equal to 10-15cpl drop per litre? Work me through the Maths?

McCaul can sell you some candles if you want, it has been asked before if he "worked for the oil companies". but he has been working on the price change/forcast for a couple of years on this site and he has done his homework and knows what he's talking about. 


ramy2k
User Icon
Price updates: 1
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 30
2012-05-09 10:59:14

I have to agree with Shane26. There are a significant number of petrol stations around south dublin who NEVER pass on the full reduction in brent crude oil. I have watched the pump price over the last month in Esso Cabinteely, Texaco on the Rock road, Topaz in Bray - just to name a few. Their price hasn't budged from 1.699/litre whereas other stations in different parts of Dublin (even within a 10 mile radius have reduced the price of petrol by a paltry amount about 2 cent at most. And by my calculations this has been no where near the 3-4 cent/litre that McCaul claims they should have passed on, let alone a further 3-4 cent. In fact, one of these stations actually increased their prices in the last week! So petrol around these parts of town is still averaging around 1.70 euros a litre give or take a cent.

It's time to start boycotting these greedy service stations. I have been following oil for many years now and am fully aware of the impact of currency fluctuations and the price of Brent crude.


vickers209
User Icon
Price updates: 654
Station Photos: 4
Forum Posts: 56
2012-05-09 20:16:13

Campus reducing there fuel card price by 4 cent tonight


shane26
User Icon
Price updates: 6
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 73
2012-05-09 20:56:34

jonnybangbang, iam working this off brent oil prices as the link i shared before

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/futures_commodities/brent_oil_prices_historical.php?type_symbol=futures_cb&start=30

also do a currency check for that time of year, cross ref. them against petroll stations and including the 7-10 margin the prices takes to filter through.

and include the extra the extra refineries are charging in the summer which is a joke anyway.

also getting real sick of petrol station owners coming in here and advertizing there prices to be low and when you pull in there it aint.and before some1 says there not, why would the same person be putting lower prices on for 1 particular station and never for any others.

boils my blood.

vent over.


nedtango
User Icon
Price updates: 11
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 6
2012-05-11 10:47:59

shane26, if you really believe that there are ppl putting in false prices then report in to the webmaster. the user can, i'm sure, be blocked and that will solve that problem. 

One thing i think may have been mixed up in this whole thread is that mcaul mentioned a current 10c difference between petrol and diesel, where as during the winter they were almost equal. You seemed to take this as a 10c increase, i'm sure u'll find that it might be closer to 5c either way making a 10c difference.  I just had aquick look at the data links you posted and if you take the summer change in petrol into account, the price is maybe 2c higher than in feb.

one other thing, i don't own a petrol station or work for an oil company!


shane26
User Icon
Price updates: 6
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 73
2012-05-11 21:24:37

lol ned.

i was just venting earlier, what better place to do it.

i love this site and its very helpful


mcaul
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 319
2012-05-13 13:46:00

shane26 - if you can prove I own a petrol station, I'll give it to you free.

I absolutely despise this type of childish crap that the likes of you spurt out on message boards. This is a COMMUNITY forum - NOT a Yahoo ranting message board. Providing information DOES NOT make someone a garage owner.

Its now almost 6 years that I have been putting information on pricing here - sometimes I've got it wrong, but most times its been quite accurate. I will stick my neck out now and say we are finally movign into a sustained downside period for oil pricing and will settle at or below $80. - But that is pure speculation and I assure you, I don't have an oil field in my backgarden!

If you want to take over please feel free to do so.

Refineries work on TINY margins, Because the use of petrol increases in summer months and it is a different mix compared to winter months (google it as there are hundreds of pages), it is more expensive to refine and the refining costs almost matches that of diesel. - Here diesel then works out cheaper at the pumps because the duty is lower.

A $10 change in the oil price assuming no difference in exchage rate equates to approx 8c incl vat at the pump. Prices rose to $128 for a very short while and the average for that week was $126 - at a dollar rate at $1.32. The average for the past week has been $113 @ $1.29 a $13 change for the top, but equilavent to approx $11 when currency is taken into account and therefore this equates to about 9c on the forecourt from the top (1.70 to what it hopefully will be next week (1.61) and about 10c less for Diesel.

BTW - as jonnybangbang says - I can sell you as many smelly candles as you wish. www.yankee.ie  Technically an oil product, but absolutely no use in getting your car engine running.

   


shane26
User Icon
Price updates: 6
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 73
2012-05-13 14:14:07

i would really love to know what was sos wrong with what iam saying, at the end of the day it is a form for writing your opinion.

i work of data figures and things just dont add up


mcaul
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 319
2012-05-14 10:03:56

shane26 - just because someone gives ubiased views doesn;t mean they work / own a petrol station. - That schoolboy yard stuff.

We have to accept that as a small little country we have absolutley no control over fuel prices. The government will not drop taxes either. Fuel station owners take a tiny cut and in most case lose money on fuel becase they need to drive punters into their shops to buy sandwiches - most station owners HATE the high prices as people are cutting back on driving and therefore means less visits into their stores.

Where pumps.ie comes in is to provide a list of stations that are charging lower than average that you can target to fill up with if you are near the area and allows you by pass the stations that are higher than average.

The forecast forum will prepare you for price hikes / price drops and hopefully give an insight to the overall pricing of fuels. Think that even if oil cost nothing, the pump cost would still be about 90c a litre and even with the best will in the world, I doubt if we'll ever see a price below €1.30 again!!  

 


mcaul
User Icon
Price updates: 0
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 319
2012-05-14 21:30:46

good few stations have dropped under 1.60 for petrol - shop around or if possible wait till the price drop feeds into your local station. On diesel we may see prices below 1.50 again. 


richiek
User Icon
Price updates: 3831
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 18
2012-05-15 08:34:01

I have to agree with mcaul.The days of less than 1.30 litre are gone.The euro is falling off a cliff in relation to the dollar and the middle east seem focused on no less than $100 bucks a barrel and after all that our old friends the government will certainly up the carbon duty again with any fall in fuel prices because they can and will in the next budget...!!!


tarabuses
User Icon
Price updates: 6020
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 106
2012-05-15 13:33:46

No station on my watch list is anywhere near 1.60.  Some have fallen by 2/3c but two haven't moved down at all from 1.69.9 !


shane26
User Icon
Price updates: 6
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 73
2012-05-15 15:15:56

what part of the country are u from tara?


tarabuses
User Icon
Price updates: 6020
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 106
2012-05-17 09:00:24

I'm in the Dundrum/Stillorgan area with a watchlist running from there into town.


shane26
User Icon
Price updates: 6
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 73
2012-05-17 15:52:06

thats crazy tara and theres alot of stations on that route.


ramy2k
User Icon
Price updates: 1
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 30
2012-05-18 10:29:37

Yes, it's strange how some stations around the country are as low as 1.60 for petrol yet most stations around the n11/rock road in dublin haven't lowered their prices from 1.699/litre (since early April) despite the oil price drop from circa 125/barrel to 111-113/barrel. It's a joke. We consistently hear about petrol stations making very low margins on fuel but how does this explain a 10 cent differential between different parts of the country (even 8 cent in Dublin)? I don't think it's going to change - they will put up prices quicker to reflect increases in brent crude oil and lower prices slower if they do it at all when the demand slows.


VICKERS209
User Icon
Price updates: 654
Station Photos: 4
Forum Posts: 56
2012-05-18 11:13:32

If people didnt buy any fuel in these garages that are more expensive they have no choice but to reduce there price to get back custom


tarabuses
User Icon
Price updates: 6020
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 106
2012-05-18 13:29:24

The problem is that stations in an area seem to keep prices fairly similar.  Applegreen, Esso and Texaco prices in Stillorgan mirror moves up and down.  All are 166.9 (or .7 or .8) this week.  If I want anything below that price I have to go to Ballinteer where Applegreen is 163.8 at the moment but how much is it costing me to drive there to save 3c a litre?  


ramy2k
User Icon
Price updates: 1
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 30
2012-05-18 16:14:14

I agree that the best approach is to avoid buying fuel in these stations but as tarabuses notes, it isn't worth your while diverting to the cheaper parts of town unless you live or commute in these areas. They are definitely keeping their prices up as they know people have limited options. Certainly, most stations near the coast (i.e. Sandymount/Dun Laoire/Sallynoggin/Bray) are just shy of 1.70/litre and haven't passed on the reductions. There are areas in Dublin such as Ballinteer or Ballymount that are a few cent cheaper and Top on Usher's quay seems to be the best value under new management. And after driving to Roscommon this week, stations are well cheaper on average down there. But the issue is garages purposely keeping fuel prices up in a joint effort as they know drivers won't find it feasible to detour.


shane26
User Icon
Price updates: 6
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 73
2012-05-18 21:59:04

1.55.9 in longford and 1.69 in alot of places around dublin, what a joke. people getting scr*wed me thinks


sobanek
User Icon
Price updates: 3
Station Photos: 0
Forum Posts: 55
2012-05-19 13:05:31

W00T!!!!!11111oneoneone

We're on $106.83 a barrel right now for the past two days!

Keep going down, bitch.


Please log in if you would like to post a comment about this article. Or click here to register for your free pumps.ie account
Member Login
Username :
Password :
Remember me!
Like us!

Average Prices
Petrol: 138.9c
Diesel: 124.9c

Top Updaters
This week's top price updaters are:
  1. nuge3 (1104)
  2. Mike59 (147)
  3. cr (56)
  4. emac (54)
  5. noslenp (49)
  6. collijo (38)
  7. dcoveney (36)
  8. tarabuses (34)
  9. patoc37 (32)
  10. Snjeg (31)

Google Ads