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Oil Price hits an All Time Euro High - Fuel rises to follow.
forecast
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2012-08-14 08:51:55

Brent crude hit $114 today. Converting that to Euro equates to €92.50, the higest ever level seen and beating the €91.60 high in July 2008.   

If the $113-$114 level is sustained we will see forecourt prices rise above €1.60 for diesel & above €1.70 for petrol in the next 10-14 days.

Remember that since the 2008 high, government taxes on fuel have increased the retail price by almost 22c! So deduct 22c from the forecourt price and you will see similar prices to July 2008.



oiligopoly
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2012-08-14 11:05:25

Hi, please can you post the source for this info? Cheers.


mikeecho
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2012-08-14 11:06:46

The public have become accustomed to 1.699¢/l (petrol) since the last bout of fuel rises, I dont think people will become shocked any more until we hit 1.799¢/l.

Then fuel will drop a little, we'll all be happy with 1.60+ until it hits 1.80+

 

Living with petrol prices going up and down is like living in a Groundhog Day

 


robert muldoon
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2012-08-14 12:46:25

The main issue out there seems to be Iran and the concerns that Israel will attack, this standoff will not go on forever  . The US doesn't want to rock the.boat before the Nov elections but will Israel wait?i don't know

K


ramy2k
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2012-08-14 18:08:32

There's definitely an element of pressing the motorist to see how much pain they can take with a lot of stations and then once oil prices abate, some of the drop will be passed on and a new elevated level will appear once prices go back up again, even if they are are the same € equivalent price.

Re: July '08 - I remember paying €1.379/l for diesel back then and some stations were charging €1.419/l and the increased taxes on diesel in the subsequent budgets are approximately 18 cent (petrol - 22 cent) from memory so diesel seems to be about right. Still a bloody rip-off.

But petrol was some 10 cent cheaper than diesel in July '08 (approximately €1.30/l I think) so I would think that it's now priced about 10-15 cent higher if we were looking solely @ price/currency differentials.

A reduction in excise duty is definitely long overdue but I can't see it coming. If the government dropped 5 cent of fuel, it would help many businesses stay afloat. Diesel is circa €1.40/l in Spain at the moment and they've been hit with worse budgetary deficit problems than our good selves!


mcaul
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2012-08-15 09:33:17

Oligolpoly - sources are open sources online.

Key in "Brent crude 5 year chart on google" and take your pick, same for US dollar - Key in US Dollar 5 year chart. Here's one chart http://www.tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

Five day average price for brent crude reached $143.5  - Intraday high was $146.1

At the same time, the US dollar traded at $1.57/€1 on a five day average - intraday high was $1.6058 

 

Ramy2k - the only ones pressing the motorists is the government. The extra vat they are taking in more would more than allow for a reduction in duty / suspension of carbon tax. The retailers hate it as the only thing they make money on the the stuff sold in the shops - higher prices = less driving = less visits to fuel station = less sambos & coke.


mcaul
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2012-08-15 09:58:15

btw - if you are going to UK / NI, the price there has gone over €1.80 per litre for both petrol & diesel, so fill up before crossing.


mcaul
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2012-08-16 10:22:20

OUCH - Today Brent Oil hit another All Time Euro High of over €95.

 


Shearer
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2012-08-20 11:40:26

Great site and information - thank you.

 

ps : I think the point is valid about current petrol prices but should also take into account the dollar is trading about 1.23 compared to close to 1.60 in July '08. ?


Shearer
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2012-08-20 11:41:28

oops sorry see that was posted, have to learn to scroll!


mcaul
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2012-08-21 15:40:10

So many analysts out there and all saying different things - but here's the most optimistic guy. If he's correct (and he's well regarded) we'll see €1 diesel again :)

But don't bet on it!!!

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/crude-oil-heading-2008-low-32-40-elliott-120711517.html

 


thievesrus
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2012-08-22 15:34:05

All we need 2 do is grow a few sweet shpuds and we're laughing, leave the real shpuds for the poteen!

http://earthsky.org/human-world/sweet-potato-tops-corn-in-ethanol-fuel-study


thievesrus
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2012-08-22 15:48:41

Wood chippings will do too for biofuel.

http://earthsky.org/human-world/bacteria-may-aid-in-boost-to-biofuel-production

Ireland is wasting resources and cars can easily be adapted - look at Brasil.


mcaul
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2012-08-23 08:40:21

I reckon prices will top out at 1.72 for unleaded and 1.62 for diesel. It is possible that many stations will not want to go over the 1.70 pain barrier, so I wouldn't be panic buying at this stage.

The reason for this is the Euro has gained some strength and is trading close to 1.26 and the exchange rates feed into pricing very quickly. - This time in the motorist's favour.


weathergossip
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2012-08-25 23:10:50

172.9c in some parts of Mayo (station out Knock road in Charlestown and think I saw another)


mcaul
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2012-08-28 13:58:30
Here's an absolute breakdown of petrol prices
all in euro.

Litre of un refined oil – 52c
Refining cost – 17c
Excise Taxes – 59c
Distributor – 6c
Retailer – 5 c
Vat – 32c

...
Total 171

Whilst a barrel of oil will have approx 10-13 US gallons of gasoline extracted, the refineries can "manufacture" up to another 20 gallons from each barrel depending on demand. The bigger the demand, the more they have to "manufacture" - as this is more costly than the natural breakdown of the oil it casues spikes in refinery costs for petrol in summer (known as summer driving season in USA) - the opposite happens in winter where a premium is charged on diesel due to "manufacturing" costs of extra diesel beyond what naturally can be produced from the barrel.


Hope this boring bit of info is of use to someone :)

ramy2k
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2012-08-28 14:21:29

Brent Crude now trading @ $112.5 @ $1.256/€ or €89.60 approximately. Let's hope it's sustained and we see some respite from the €95/barrel level on the 16th august.


mcaul
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2012-08-29 09:53:42

yep - we should see a small drop to 1.68 average next week. The currency drop already happened and meant that the 1.75 level wasn't reached because currency movement feeds into pricing within approx. 3 days.


robert muldoon
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2012-08-30 19:35:55

I see someone has posted the emo station in James st Dublin 159 for petrol, is this correct?


ramy2k
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2012-08-31 09:18:39

Not sure but I've noticed an odd price pattern with Emo Mount Brown over the last while. Found another Emo station in the midlands last night which was marked as selling diesel @ 150.9 2 days ago but was in fact 159.9 so someone inputted the wrong figures.


tarabuses
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2012-09-06 13:30:18

I have noticed, on my watchlist, that the most expensive stations are now Topaz at 172.9 per litre whereas they used to be among the cheapest in my area.  I notice that the AA now issue a fuel card that gives 2c discount per litre at Topaz stations.  Could the two be connected and are Topaz happy to settle for just AA members as customers?


ramy2k
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2012-09-07 11:19:38

ramy2k
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2012-09-07 14:49:07

robert muldoon
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2012-09-07 15:29:31

Some more positive news today, dollar heading towards 1.28 and oil fairly stable if not a bit lower,  also Irish bond yields down to 5.61, must be the lowest one day drop in 4 years!!


robert muldoon
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2012-09-07 15:31:47

Sorry that should be' biggest one day drop'


ramy2k
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2012-09-08 08:40:57

sobanek
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2012-09-13 23:12:50

Dollar at $1.2911 today, and yet I see prices rising!!

 

Brent at €90.54 a barrel - €2.00 less than a month ago...


mcaul
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2012-09-14 09:01:12

The raw oil price is only one factor.

From what I see, the refinery price out of rotherdam is about $3.50 per US gallon (3.8litres) - That equates to just over 70c/litre based on a $1.30 exchange, add 59c duty/taxes, 10c distribution/retail + 23% vat and you're at 1.71

Diesel is a little higher, but the lower duty means it will be around the €1.62 price on average at the pumps. 


vickers209
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2012-09-19 08:29:58

With oil down to $112 a barrel and dollar at 1.31, Do you think we will Start to see drops at pumps anytime soon??


ramy2k
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2012-09-19 13:08:45

tarabuses
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2012-09-19 13:24:22

Possibly not since we have to hope that the refineries will pass it on.


vickers209
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2012-09-19 18:55:29

oil fell to 108 today lets hope the trend contuines prob wont tho!!


robert muldoon
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2012-09-19 19:02:32

There seems to be a sustained effort to bring prices back, how long it will last is anyone's guess


mcaul
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2012-09-19 23:00:00

the good news is IF the price of brent stays below $110 over the next few days and the dollar hovers about $1.30, we'll see pump prices fall to 1.62 average with many stations going sub 1.60 - and about 8-10c less for diesel. I expect we will see the benefits of the weaker dollar this weekend.

From reading news articles, its possible this is the start of a slump similar to 2008, but then again, there are as many articles saying its temporary. But remember this is an election year!!!!, so I favour the falling theory.


tarabuses
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2012-09-26 13:25:19

I have observed some downward movement in the last couple of days.


mikeecho
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2012-09-26 16:48:57

kerosene  increasing  by 1.5cent tonigh


richiek
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2012-10-12 00:02:28

Any idea what Kerosene is currently at,might be worthwhile having a section on the website that tracks Kerosenes prices,just a thought...


vickers209
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2012-10-12 22:32:56

be heading up by looks of it on www.campusoil.ie shows the trend of kero and gas oil prices at 94.5cent a litre at the min if you order a 1000

 

Think a new Forcast is needed on site this one 2 months old


richiek
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2012-10-13 09:49:17

thanks vickers209

 


sobanek
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2012-10-14 14:08:23

Prices are on the rise again. Went up 2c in local stations today.


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