World oil prices continue to be under pressure and the euro / dollar rate seems to be holding near the 1.27 level. We should see pump prices move down over the next couple of weeks to about 1.27 for petrol & 1.20 for diesel on average.

The even better news is that market commentators think this is the start of a much larger drop in prices and that a oil price in the $50-$55 range is a distinct possibility in the medium 3 month term. Due to taxes & duties, this would not mean a gigantic price drop at the pumps but would mean prices at about €1.12 per litre / diesel & €1.05 for petrol.  

The recent oil price move to $83 seems to have set a top and the market is expecting prices to commence a sustained downward trend over the coming weeks. Currently there are small rises in pump prices due to the oil price rise at the end of July, but this has been tempered by a rise in the Euro.

Refinery prices have fallen back to about 42c / litre for unleaded, but diesel has remained higher at 45c probably due to the fact diesel is in far more demand in China / India where economies are booming again.

This leads to average forecaourt prices hovering around the 1.31 level (possibly a little higher initially and then back) for petrol & 1.24 for diesel over the coming 2 weeks.

On home heating oil (winter's coming) I'd hold off and see whether the much heralded drop in prices becomes a reality.

Refinery prices have remained steady and the possibilty of a substantial drop in oil prices over the next couple of months remains. Current average refinery prices are 42c for petrol & 43c for diesel.

Expect pump prices to move slightly lower to 1.32 for petrol & 1.23 for diesel. Shopping around will see up to 5c off these levels in some areas.

Oil prices continue to fluctuate, but the higher line continues to drop, so its a case of 2 steps lower and one step higher. Pump prices are dropping back slowly and petrol prices should average about 1.31 and diesel prices about 1.22 within the next couple of weeks.

Despite oil price jumps & falls, US dollar weakening & stengthening, refinery prices for petrol & diesel have remained realtively steady at about 45.5c to 46.5c per litre.  

Translated to pump prices means prices on the forecourt remaining similar to current levels, but possibly a cent or so higher. 

As soon as I posted the previous forecast, the oil price went up and eliminated the small reduction expected. The market is currently trending up both in terms of oil prices and also Eur/USD currency.

Currently refinery prices are approx. 45c for petrol & 46c diesel, which when taxes & duties of 56.4c & 47.02c respectively & 10c for retail & distribution costs means prices will move slightly upwards to 1.35 for petrol & 1.25 for diesel.

Medium term (3 month) still suggests a downward curve on oil prices, but will follow a 2 steps down, one step up pattern.  

We are expecting that prices will continue their general sideways trajectory with small decreases. A very weak euro has meant that oil price drops have not fed into better reductions at the pumps.

As of today, refinery price for petrol / diesel is 42.5c / 44c respectively. Add in taxes / duties of 56.4c for petrol & 47.02c for diesel + 10c average distribution & retail margins, means the average pump prices will move down slightly to 1.31 for petrol & 1.22 for diesel.

The medium term (3 month) trend is still suggesting oil prices will move lower and some currency commentators are suggesting a recovery in the euro back to 1.33. If (a big if) both these things were to happen, we'll see more substantial pump price falls.     

We are predicting that average petrol prices and diesel prices will fall slightly from 1.34 to 1.32 for petrol and from 1.24 to 1.22 for diesel over the next week or so. These reductions will remain small until the euro regains some of its value against the dollar and/or oil prices drop further.

Despite the large drop in oil prices, average pump prices will remain above €1.30 for a while yet, but there are signs of further price drops as we move into mid june.

The cause of prices staying high despite the drop in oil prices is the near 12% drop in the value of the euro over the past 4 weeks or so, thus eliminating a large element of the 20% decline in oil prices. All oil & oil products are sold in US dollars.

The implosion in oil prices as predicted on Pumps.ie over three weeks ago has started and oil prices have dropped to $75 for WTI & $78 for Brent. Down from $87 & $89 just a week ago.

Refinery prices have dropped too and the euro has recoved a small bit leading to forecourt prices expected to drop to 1.31 for petrol & 1.22 for diesel within 2 weeks.

Here's hoping the end of May forecast will bring further reductions :) 

Prices remain stubbornly high on the world market & the greek tragedy has weakend the euro making oil imports more expensive as they're purchased in US dollars. The market is still suggesting that a drop in prices is imminent due to a huge oversupply situation. Once this starts, prices could fall quite quickly to $70 (from $85)

Unfortunately until this happen prices at the pumps will remain high and based on today's refinery prices expect Petrol to move slightly higher to 1.37 and diesel to 1.27 average

Now wouldn't it be nice for Mr Lenihan to suspend the carbon tax til next year!!?? 

More of the same but market watchers are suggesting that prices will start falling soon based on several factors including unseasonably warm weather in USA, a stronger dollar and consumer resistance.

Prices forecast to remain at current levels over the next 2 weeks.

Possibly a small bit of better news. Prices have pulled back from their early week peaks and the euro has strengthened a little against the dollar.

Assuming this trend continues expect pump prices to start coming off their highs over the next 10 days or so.

Expected average pumps prices for last week of April are  1.32 for petrol & 1.22 for diesel

Prices continue to creep up and the dollar has remained strong. This only means one thing - increased prices.

Expect the regular priced stations to be at €1.35 for petrol & €1.25 for diesel over the next 2 weeks.

The so called professional forecasters are estimating that prices are at a top and expect prices to fall moving into the summer. - we'll see if they get it right.

Apologies - had forgotten to update last week.

Refinery prices have continued to increase further than the crude price and currently are 44c for unleaded & 43c for diesel. Add in 56.48c in duties / carbon tax for petrol & 47c for same on diesel + 10c on both for distribution & retail costs + VAT  and the net effect means €1.34 for unleaded & 1.21 for diesel.

As these prices have been rising for the past 2 weeks, it is feeding into the pump prices over the next few days.

Unfortunately a combination of a surprise rise in US interest rates and better than expected economic figures from China & the US have led to oil prices increasing.

With the US dollar trading below 1.36 & brent oil at $78, the cost of refined petrol / diesel has risen to 41c / litre. Add in the relevant distribution costs, vat & duties and we'll be seeing increases on the forecourt fairly soon.

Expect unleaded to head towards 1.28 & Diesel to 1.19. On home heating it would be best to fill up asap aas prices will rise towards €600 per 1000 litres soon and then a further €50 odd will be added on May 1st with the carbon tax. (already applied to petrol / diesel)

As predicted, oil prices continue downward and are now at $71 for Brent crude. The dollar has strengthened to $1.38 to negate much of the oil drop.

Expect pump prices to start reducing in the coming days and average prices should be approx 1.20 for unleaded & 1.10 for diesel by mid february. The lower priced stations will probably be about 3c lower than this at 1.17 / 1.07.

Looking further ahead, analysts suggest it is possible that oil will continue its downward trend and settle in the low $60 range. This would shave a further 5c off retail fuel prices.

As predicted, oil prices are making a hasty retreat from $84 and are now under $75. Unfortunately the dollar has strengthened 3% to 1.41 which will pare back the reductions at the forecourt. The market sees further falls in oil to $70, but also sees the dollars move to $1.38 / €1

Expect prices to fall to approx. 1.11 for diesel & 1.21 for petrol & €530 for 1000 litres home heat over the next 2 weeks.

Even better news may be in the offing over the next few weeks. Sopme of the leading market commentators are suggesting that a prolonged period of falling oil prices may be ahead with some expecting prices totumble below $50. There are 2 reasons for this. 1- China wants to cool its economy and is putting steps in palce to avoid excessive growth. & 2. Obama's banking plan will restrict availability of finance for hedge funds to gamble on commodity markets. If Obama's banking paln is pushed though, it will bring musch needed stability to the oil Market and the product will be priced on real demand and not on what some eejit thinks may happen 50 years in the future.

Oil prices have continued their relentless march higher and now stand at $83 / Barrel. Coupled with a stronger dollar and we will have continued price increase at the pumps.

Current world trade figures suggest a €1.27 price for petrol, €1.18 for diesel and €580 per 1000 litres home heat within the next week or so.

Oil prices regained some of the losses they had over the past couple of weeks and have ended the week at $73. The dollar has also been strengthening and has risen by 6c over the past 10 days.

The result of this will be any drop in prices over the next week will be short lived and early January will see prices back at 1.23 for petrol, 1.15 for diesel and €530 / 1000 litres home heat.

Have a great and safe driving Christmas - mind the eggnog!

Mcaul.

The budget taketh away what the markets are about to give.

Big price pressures on oil this week leading to lower refinery prices which will feed into the pumps just before we carve the turkey - or nut roast if your vegetarian!

Price of brent has fallen from $78 last week to $71 today. Refinery prices have dropped from 36c / litre to 33c / litre on Petrol & 37c to 34c on diesel.

Add in duty/nora/carbon tax of 56.48c for petrol & 47.02c for diesel + 8c - 11c shared for the tanker drivers, distributors & stations, plus the vat and the price of fuel should be about  €1.17 - €1.20 for petrol & 1.08 - 1.11 for diesel.