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Price Forecasts
Change in direction
Posted by:forecast

Its been very boring our there with prices staying about the same for the past couple of months.

However recent events in Algeria could cause a turn upwards in prices, but with talk of triple dip recessions and fiscal cliffs, I'd say prices will continue as they are with a slight tick to upside.

 

btw - apologies for not updating more often, but the market has been very stagnated and it was a little busy on my end at xmas. 

  


downtrend continuing
Posted by:forecast

The slight downtrend / flat line in prices looks like continuing in the near term along with a weakening dollar of circ 1.30.

Unless there are budget changes, expect petrol prices to drop another cent or 2, but diesel prices to remain as is.   


End October forecast
Posted by:forecast

Middle East geopolitical concerns are keeping oil prices at the current price levels and there is nothing to suggest any dramatic price movement in either direction over the next couple of weeks.

The weakening of the US dollar last month did stave off the 1.70+ prices that were being predicted and for the next while expect prices to be relatively stable at about 1.68 for unleaded and 1.60 for diesel


Oil Price hits an All Time Euro High - Fuel rises to follow.
Posted by:forecast

Brent crude hit $114 today. Converting that to Euro equates to €92.50, the higest ever level seen and beating the €91.60 high in July 2008.   

If the $113-$114 level is sustained we will see forecourt prices rise above €1.60 for diesel & above €1.70 for petrol in the next 10-14 days.

Remember that since the 2008 high, government taxes on fuel have increased the retail price by almost 22c! So deduct 22c from the forecourt price and you will see similar prices to July 2008.


August Forecast
Posted by:forecast

Price action has steadied after the recent jump back to the $105 range and it has meant gradual rises in retail prices to current levels of 1.62 / 1.54. I suspect we may see another cent or so added to those prices this week.

With exception of the Euro summit, there's nothing major on the horizon that will move prices up/down and traditionally August is a quiet month as traders take their holidays.

 


Mid Term Forecast
Posted by:forecast

The agreement at the European summit surprised many and has led to a spike in oil prices pushed on by geopolitical issues in Iran.

The fundamentals still suggest a lowering trend especially if Chinese economy starts to cool. However fundamentals don't always affect the oil market as they would a normal market.

The increase to $100 will mean that any short term reduction this week will be gone next week as refinery prices are at approx. 60.5c/litre for unleaded and 63c for diesel - leading to retail prices of circa 1.61 for unleaded (based on duties 59c, dist/retail 10c, vat @23%) and 1.50 for diesel  (based on duties 48c, dist/retail 10c, + vat @23%)


July Forecast
Posted by:forecast

International prices continue their downward trend and this continues to dripfeed into pump prices. Last week drop will see average prices for petrol fall to about 1.54 in the next 10-12 days and diesel to about 1.44. - Watch out for the price agressive stations going sub 1.50 / 1.40 for petrol & diesel from next weekend (as predicted here on Pumps.ie on June 4th!!) 

The falling trend is set to continue and many analysts are suggesting oil prices will continue the downward trend in the coming weeks with targets in the $50 - $60 being the most prevalent.

As a ready reckoner - every $10 drop in oil prices based on  a $1.25 dollar rate, sees approx 7.5c (incl vat) reduction in pump prices. 

Finally, iIf Oil was $1, the pump price would still be about 95c a litre (Diesel 86c/litre) as the cost of refining, distribution, retail costs and taxes (excluding vat) remain relatively static.  


Fuel Price Forecast
Posted by:forecast

As predicted here 2 weeks ago. The higher oil price trend finally broke and the only way was down. Also, as poredicted, the US dollar would continue to strengthen, knocking off some of the downward price action.

The good news is the downward treb=nd has become stronger and the US dollar / euro is stabiising, so finally we should see some decent price changes at the pumps and we predict average prices will drop to 1.58 in about 10 days with many stations below 1.55 For diesel, expecta  similar trend, but about 8c-10c below petrol prices and it quite possible we will see diesel below 1.40 by month end and petrol below 1.50.

For home heating users, hang on for further price drops - late July/early aug may be best time to fill up before the winter diesel premium from refineries kicks in. I'm hoping for a €600 / 1000 litres price.     


June Forecast
Posted by:forecast

As we move into summer, the back has finally broken on the oil prices and the trend is most definitely down. The 2 cogs in the wheel are refineries who are charging more to refine the oil into fuel (expected as many of them were losing money and several went bust in past 12 months) and the US dollar which continues to strengthen (currently just over $1.26) and may move towards $1.20 if the eurozone crisis continues. The currency change has cancelled out $6 of the recent price drop when converted to Euro which is why €1.60 has not broken on the forecourt just yet.

But as they say, the trend is your friend and this one is definitely down. Look for average prices to stay a little above €1.60 for another week or two on petrol and look for about 1.52 on diesel.

 


Price Commentary April 20th
Posted by:forecast

Oil prices continue to be at high levels that do not reflect reality in the markets.

The main cause of this is a combination of speculators and continued political issues particularly in Iran. The medium term picture sees very little respite in prices unless the Iranian situation becomes less volitile.

In addition, we see continued strength in the US dollar with some commentators suggesting further strength to about $1.26 / €1.

Furthermore, demand for petrol always increases in summer and demad for diesl falls - thus refinery premiums for the 2 products have changed and the cost of refining petrol from the refineries has increased and diesle decreased. This happens every Spring and Autumn and is why we've seen diesel go from almost on par with petrol to now being 8c-10c lower.   

In the short term, we will see about 2c - 3 c come off the recent highs at the pumps based on the drop back from $125 to $118 over the past couple fo weeks, but that's about as positive a news I can give at this time.

But don't forget, planning the journeys, taking it easy on the motorways and open roads (under 100km/hr), less use of braking and watching the road ahead and allowing the car ease to a halt will give you up to 30% extra mileage. - It may be boring driving, but its saves money.    


More rises on the way
Posted by:forecast

Since the end of January oil prices have broken out of their $5 deviation that had been the pattern for several months and broke substantially to the upside, with Brent currently at $123. In Euro terms, this matches the highs of 2008.

One of the causes it the continued issues with Iran whilst another cause is simple demand and not enough supply.

Analysts are divided on where oil will go from here, but the general consensus is there is very little downside pressure on prices in the near future.

What this means for the pumps is €1.60+ will become normal next week for unleaded and diesel will be just shy of €1.60.   

It really is becoming a case of cutting journeys and taking it easy on the pedals - you can save 30% of fuel by going constant 90/95km/hr on a motorway rather than 120km/hr. 


Oil Prices Stable - Forecourt Prices Rise
Posted by:forecast

Over the past 6 months and also in the near furture, brent oil prices have remained very stable and mostly within a $5 deviance from $110.  This has been one of the most stable period for oil prices for many years, yet in the past 6-8 weeks the forecourt prices have risen by 10c-12c.

But before blaming the hardpressed forecourt owners who take an average of just 5c cut of the €1.55 average we are currently paying lets see what has happened since October.

1. The Budget. - Added 1.4c petrol / 1.6c diesel to carbon tax on Dec 6th, it also added 2% vat on Jan 1st. - Total extra taxes approx 4.5c / litre

2. US Dollar / Euro. All through the summer and up til October, the average exchange rate was about $1.43 / €1. Yesterday it dropped below 1.27 - that's an 11% difference in just 3 months and a good chunk of the drop was from end of November. Fuel is bought in US dollars, so this added 11% to the ex tax price of fuel (approx 60c unleaded / 62c diesel) - about 6.5c + of course vat @23% making 8c.

So 8c of the recent increases are attributed to currency moves and 4.5c due to tax hikes - makes a total of 12.5c increase from the October averages of 1.43 & 1.45.

And with oil prices still stable and not looking to move much in the near term, the only potential change in prices will come from the exchange rate between the US dollar & the Euro. In the short term, this may bring some relief, but most commentators are suggesting mid 1.20's as the exchange rate in the medium term.    

 


Posted by:forecast

Prices still relatively stable. Difference between Brent & WTI (US) oil is down to $10 (was at $25), so forecasting prices is a little easier. US prices seem to have difficulty at the $100 level which bodes well for continued stability in prices.

The weakening of the euro though is feeding into pumps with small rises of 1c - 2c noticeable. Expect average price for both diesel & unleaded to be about 1.48 - 1.50.

It will be interesting to see whether the budget adds anything to fuel - personally I don't think it will as it will increase use of washed fuel and the 2% vat increase will add 3c per litre anyway.


Market continues stable pattern
Posted by:forecast

Brent oil prices have remained relatively stable over the past few weeks. Also the difference between the lower quality US oil and Brent has become smaller.

We don't see any particular event that will cause any changes in the current price range, so its really as is for the time being with the bias still being towards slight lowering of prices. 

Diesel has risen recently as demand for diesel fuel always increases in the winter and the refinery changes its charges to reflect that.  


small rises on the way
Posted by:forecast

Many will ahve seen the dollar/euro go from $1.45 to $1.37 in the past couple of weeks. This will feed into pump prices this week as fuel is paid for upon delivery at port, so currency swings only take 3-5 days to feed into pumps.

On the oil market, Brent has dropped a little to $110 so the overall change will be a small increase of about 2c at the pumps and then steady towards the end of the month.  


Good news at last...
Posted by:forecast

Oil price falling and the US dollar weakening slightly. The combined affect should see prices starting to come down next weekend with the main drop the following weekend.

Assuming brent crude stays below $105 and the dollar stays about $1.43/€1, we can look forward to about 8c drop in pump prices down to 1.42 for unleaded and 1.34 for diesel.

If some comentators are to be believed, brent prices could fall to the low $80 level. - Just in time for the heating oil season! 


End July Forecast
Posted by:forecast

Despite every world economic sign pointing to a required drop in oil prices, the market simply continues to be overpriced.

Combined with the probable start of a period of a stronger dollar will see near record highs at the fuel pumps yet again. 

Based on current brent price of $116 and a $1.40 dollar, it is forecast that pump prices will rise to €1.55 - €1.57 for unleaded and €1.46 - €1.48 for diesel by month end, with a good bit of the rise coming this weekend.  


July Forecast
Posted by:forecast

A gradual softening of prices is currently underway and its combined with a relatively rangebound euro/dollar exchange rate.

Brent is currently at $111, down from $119 last week, hence we should see small reductions at the pumps over the next couple of weeks.

Mid-term, it looks like a meaningful gradual downward path has commenced which gives hope for lower fuel costs over the coming months. 

 


Early June Forecast
Posted by:forecast

Prices have steadied after the see saw action of the past 2 weeks. The drop to $105 was very short lived but at least the up trend seems to have stopped. A stronger dollar has taken some of the price reductions, but we forecast that forecourt prices will drop below the €1.50 mark for unleaded and close to €1.40 for diesel from next week and stay relatively steady going into early June. 


May Forecast
Posted by:forecast

The continuing weakness of the dollar has softened the higher oil prices and with winter over, diesel refinery prices have dropped back below unleaded prices.

By my calculations USA refinery prices are running at 58c for diesel & 60c for unleaded. European prices should theorectically be about 3c higher due to higher brent oil prices however this calculates to a forecourt price of €1.44 for diesel & €1.59 for unleaded.   

I suspect some cross subsidisation of pricing or european refineries charging more for diesel and less for unleaded due to the higher motoring demand for diesle over here. So best guess is diesel will remain steady or drop back just a little and unleaded to increase to €1.55+ 

 


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